Much is said about the future in terms of renunciation, but rarely about foundations. The scientist Vaclav Smil is one of those who begins precisely at this point. His work describes not wishful visions, but the material structure of modern societies – and why it changes only slowly. Because, according to Smil, our lifeworld functions as a system of dependencies in which every intervention triggers further changes.

The Foundation of Advanced Civilizations

Our future presents itself as digital, but it is materially organized. According to Vaclav Smil, cement, steel, ammonia, and plastics form the basis of industrial societies. They enable infrastructure, secure harvests, and stabilize global supply chains.

The fact that these elementary materials can only be replaced to a limited extent is a central point in Smil’s book. Their production and use are intricately interwoven down to the smallest detail. In practice, this coupling is clearly visible: steel for wind turbines, cement for foundations, plastics for rotors and components. A transformation of these core elements is possible, but it requires long time horizons and lies outside short-term political target frameworks.

Geopolitical crises repeatedly demonstrate just how great the dependence on these basic materials is. Disruptions such as the blocked Strait of Hormuz have systemic effects and intensify along interconnected value chains. Missing oil and gas drive up energy prices and alter the foundations of entire industries – all the way to plastics production.

Plastics in Systemic Context

Plastics in particular stand at the center of future-oriented discussions, mainly because of the volume of waste they generate. At the same time, the material is deeply integrated into systems that make resources usable for society in an efficient way. Plastics reduce weight, protect products, and enable applications that would require significantly more material or energy without them.

The decisive factor is the context in which the material is used. In complex systems, individual components can rarely be considered in isolation, as Smil argues. Materials and technologies operate within the interplay of large, interconnected systems.

These systems do not follow a linear logic; they grow through their connections. Mathematically, this can be described as: n times (n minus 1) divided by 2 – the number of possible connections within a system. With 10 components, 45 connections emerge; with 100 components, already 4,950. It is quadratic growth in dependencies. With every additional component, the number of connections and interactions increases disproportionately.

Anyone who replaces plastics therefore also changes the balance elsewhere. Because every change propagates through these connections and triggers chain reactions. A local intervention thus creates systemic effects that elude linear control. In doing so, Smil shows one thing above all: what matters is efficiency – achieving as much as possible with the smallest possible input. Plastics can do exactly that, especially when integrated into functioning cycles.

Smil’s Perspective Between Ambition and Reality

The book „How the World Really Works“ makes one thing clear: many debates underestimate the complexity of material systems. Industry, infrastructure, and supply are only stable because of high mutual dependencies. The stronger this interconnectedness, the lower the direct controllability of individual interventions.

At the same time, global demand continues to rise. A growing world population and rising living standards increase the pressure on resources and systems. The future therefore means greater structural complexity. The central conflict arises between political goals and physical feasibility.

The short-term restructuring of existing infrastructures and investments creates new dependencies. In highly networked systems, attempts at profound redirection can even trigger unintended shifts in stability.

What matters is how we deal with this reality: using materials more efficiently, reducing losses, and closing cycles – with a focus on long-term strategy rather than quick fixes. This realism also explains why Smil’s work is so frequently cited: because it describes how the world actually works, beyond ideological wishful thinking. That is the value of the book – as a factual contribution to a discussion that often underestimates physical reality. When it comes to plastics, intelligent use matters more than a debate about renunciation.

Image Source: yes or no Media GmbH, AI-generated

Image Caption: Systemic Entanglement: Cement, steel, ammonia, and plastics are the tightly coupled basic materials of global value chains and form the material foundation of today’s societies.